A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
